Mexico

The 2035 target for Mexico under the High Ambition pathway shows a 48-52% reduction in GHG emissions (including LULUCF) from 2023 levels (Figure 1). In this pathway, GHG emissions peak before 2025, then decline immediately to meet the net-zero GHG target by 2050. In this scenario, GHG emissions decrease by 33-37% from 2023 levels by 2030 and by 48-52% by 2035.

Mexico’s GHG emissions (including LULUCF) increased by 14% from 2010 to 2023.⁴ From 2010 to 2020, emissions including LULUCF remained relatively stable but started to show an upward trend from 2021, driven by increasing transportation and power sector CO₂ emissions.⁵ In 2022, methane emissions, the power sector CO₂, and transportation CO₂ each accounted for 23% of total GHG emissions, including LULUCF, followed by industry at 16%.5 Mexico’s 2035 NDC aims to reduce total GHG emissions by 364-404 MtCO₂e unconditionally, and 332-363 MtCO₂e conditionally, targeting an absolute reduction in emissions, represents an improved approach compared to the 2030 target that was set relative to inflated BAU.² These targets cover all GHG emissions from all sectors. However, there is room for enhanced ambition. The 2035 unconditional target is not aligned with a linear pathway from current levels to net-zero emissions in 2050, as intended in COP29,³ implying a reduction of 35-41% from 2023 levels, equivalent to an average annual reduction of about 3.5-4.4%. In contrast, the conditional target aims for 42-47% reduction (4.4-5.1% average annual reduction), which is more consistent with the High Ambition pathway.

Subnational leaders are essential for advancing NDC ambition. Our report on Mexico, identifies that subnational actors still have the capacity to support and strengthen national emissions reduction efforts, despite growing federal centralization.⁸ Although state and municipal resources are limited and federal authorities lead target-setting and implementation, subnational actors still benefit from multi-level coordination, resource sharing, and the ability to advocate for national policies and incentive programs.⁸ Key measures to enhance ambition include promoting distributed generation, streamlining permitting for clean technologies, updating building codes to encourage rooftop solar, solar water heating, thermal insulation, and electrification; improving waste management and methane capture; supporting agricultural start-ups to reduce livestock methane; promoting circular economy practices; and advancing EV adoption and public transit modernization.⁸