Our High Ambition pathway for Mexico shows a peak in total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions before 2025, followed by a 48-52% reduction in emissions (including Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) from 2023 levels by 2035. As of October 24, 2025, Mexico has not announced its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Mexico’s 2030 NDC aims for a 35% unconditional or 40% conditional reduction from BAU by 2030, and the country has committed to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.1,2 GHG emissions (including LULUCF) have been rising in the country, increasing by 14% between 2010 and 2023.3,4 Meeting the 2030 unconditional target requires maintaining the average annual emissions growth rate from 2010 to 2023, while the conditional target requires slight annual reductions, keeping emissions near 2023 levels.3,5
Emissions in Mexico stem primarily from methane, the power sector CO2, and transportation CO2—each accounting for 23%—and from industry CO2 (16%),4 making mitigation in these sectors crucial to achieving emission reduction targets. Key mitigation strategies include: accelerating wind and solar deployment; phasing out coal electricity generation by 2030; improving solid waste management; incentivizing EV adoption and modal shifts in transport; and advancing the emissions trading system. Given the significant share of non-CO₂ emissions, achieving net-zero GHG emissions requires deeper CO₂ reductions and innovations to mitigate methane and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from agriculture. Despite growing federal centralization, subnational actors can strengthen national efforts by promoting energy efficiency, incentivizing rooftop solar in the industrial and residential sectors, reducing methane emissions from food loss and waste, advancing circular economy practices, and modernizing public and private transit.
2035 Target: Total GHG Emissions Reductions
via CGS High Ambition Pathways
-48 to -52%
Relative to Estimated Peak Year
2023ᵇ
Official 2035 NDC target
not announced
Official 2030 NDC target
−35 to −40 %ᵈ
Net zero target
2050
The 2035 target for Mexico under the High Ambition pathway shows a 48-52% reduction in GHG emissions (including LULUCF) from 2023 levels (Figure 1). In this pathway, GHG emissions peak before 2025, then decline immediately to meet the net-zero GHG target by 2050. In this scenario, GHG emissions decrease by 33-37% from 2023 levels by 2030 and by 48-52% by 2035.
Mexico’s GHG emissions (including LULUCF) increased by 14% from 2010 to 2023.3 From 2010 to 2020, emissions including LULUCF remained relatively stable but started to show an upward trend from 2021, driven by increasing transportation and power sector CO2 emissions.4 In 2022, methane emissions, the power sector CO2, and transportation CO2 each accounted for 23% of total GHG emissions, including LULUCF, followed by industry at 16%.4 Mexico’s NDC aims to reduce total GHG emissions by 35% unconditionally or 40% conditionally relative to a 2030 Business as Usual scenario (BAU).1 These targets cover all GHG emissions from all sectors, but it remains unclear whether land sinks will be included in the target. However, there is room for enhanced ambition. To achieve the current unconditional target, Mexico could increase total emissions, including LULUCF, by 6% between 2023 and 2030, which corresponds to an average annual growth rate of 1%. The conditional target requires only a 2% reduction by 2030, with an average annual reduction rate of 0.2%.
Subnational leaders are essential for advancing NDC ambition. Our new report on Mexico, identifies that subnational actors still have the capacity to support and strengthen national emissions reduction efforts, despite growing federal centralization.7 Although state and municipal resources are limited and federal authorities lead target-setting and implementation, subnational actors still benefit from multi-level coordination, resource sharing, and the ability to advocate for national policies and incentive programs.7 Key measures to enhance ambition include promoting distributed generation, streamlining permitting for clean technologies, updating building codes to encourage rooftop solar, solar water heating, thermal insulation, and electrification; improving waste management and methane capture; supporting agricultural start-ups to reduce livestock methane; promoting circular economy practices; and advancing EV adoption and public transit modernization.7
As of 2024, coal and gas contributed 3% and 62% to total electricity generation, while other fossil fuels accounted for 10% and nuclear for 3%. Renewables made up the remaining 22%, with solar and wind contributing 13% (Figure 2).5 Power sector emissions increased by 14% from 2010 to 2022,4 driven by a rise in gas-fired generation. By 2024, fossil power plants accounted for 72% of Mexico’s total installed power capacity, with 36% from gas, 32% from other fossil plants, and 4% from coal plants.5 Over the last decade, Mexico has added 15 GW of gas capacity, with another 7 GW currently under construction and 1 GW in pre-construction stages.8 However, annual solar and wind deployment has slowed significantly, declining from over 4.8 GW in 2019 to 1.6-1.1 GW in 2023 and 2024, largely due to policy measures and regulatory instability.5,9
Under the High Ambition scenario, emissions from electricity generation decrease, driven by accelerated solar and wind deployment, cancellation of new gas projects, and a coal phaseout by 2030. Specifically, the power sector transition under the High Ambition pathway includes:
- Solar and wind energy generation share increases from 13% in 2024 to 42% by 2030 and 61% by 2035, with average annual buildouts increasing from 1.1 GW/year in 2024 to 9 GW/year from 2025 to 2030 and 12 GW/year from 2030 to 2035.
- Coal generation phase out by 2030.
- Reducing gas generation by 33% by 2030 and 55% by 2035 from 2024 levels, with no new gas expansion, by canceling 1 GW of pre-construction projects.
Mexico’s energy system is heavily dependent on fossil fuels and reliant on imports. As of 2023, 60% of the gas supplied in Mexico was imported—primarily through pipelines from the United States—and 40% was produced domestically.11 Over the past decade, gas imports have steadily increased due to the abundant supply and low prices in the United States, as well as growing demand from the power sector and limited domestic gas production in Mexico.12,13 Under our High Ambition pathway for Mexico, domestic coal demand declines by 15% by 2030 and 33% by 2035 from the 2024 level, while gas demand falls by 31% and 43%, and oil demand increases by 1% and declines by 10%, respectively (Figure 3). Transitioning away from imported fossil fuels to renewable energy in the power sector could enhance the country’s energy security while reducing emissions from this sector.
Citations
- Gobierno de México. Contribucion Determinada a nivel Nacional. Actualizacion 2022. (2022).
- SecretarÃa de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales. México reafirmó su compromiso con la acción climática ambiciosa en la COP29. Gobierno de México
http://www.gob.mx/semarnat/prensa/mexico-reafirmo-su-compromiso-con-la-accion-climatica-ambiciosa-en-la-cop29?idiom=es (2024). - Gütschow, J., Pflüger, M. & Busch, D. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1750-2023) v2.6.1. Zenodo
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15016289 (2025). - Hoesly, R. et al. CEDS v_2025_03_18 Gridded Data 0.5 degree. Zenodo (2025).
- Ember. Electricity Data Explorer - Open Source Global Electricity Data. Ember (2025).
- NGFS. NGFS Climate Scenarios for Central Banks and Supervisors - Phase V. The Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) (2024).
- Borrero, M. et al. Achieving a High Ambition Pathway with Enhanced Subnational Climate Action in Mexico.
https://cgs.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2025-10/CGS%20report_Achieving%20a%20High%20Ambition%20Pathway%20with%20Enhanced%20Subnational%20Climate%20Action%20in%20Mexico.pdf (2025). - GEM. Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT). Global Energy Monitor (GEM) (2025).
- Nuccitelli, D. What Is Mexico Doing About Climate Change? Yale Climate Connections
http://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/04/what-is-mexico-doing-about-climate-change/ (2023). - KPMG & Kearney. Statistical Review of World Energy, 73rd Edition. Energy Insitute
https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review/resources-and-data-downloads (2024). - IEA. Mexico - Natural Gas Supply. International Energy Agency (IEA)
https://www.iea.org/countries/mexico/natural-gas (2023). - CGEP, C. |. Lucrative Reward or Mounting Risk? Mexico’s Growing Reliance on US Gas. Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA | CGEP
https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/publications/lucrative-reward-or-mounting-risk-mexicos-growing-reliance-on-us-gas/ (2023). - Consejo Nacional de Humanidades Ciencias y TecnologÃas, Gobierno de México. Flujos y Use de Gas - Plataforma Nacional de EnergÃa, Ambiente y Sociedad.
http://energia.conahcyt.mx/planeas (2023).
Our Work
Other CGS Research
Achieving a High
Ambition Pathway
with Enhanced
Subnational Climate
Action in Mexico
Enhancing Global Ambition for 2035: Assessment of High-Ambition Country Pathways
