This assessment shows that Kenya’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) allows for significant increases in emissions relative to current levels, which is plausible in the absence of dedicated mitigation efforts. Kenya’s NDC commits to a 35% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (including Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF)) relative to a business-asusual (BAU) scenario of 215 MtCO2e by 2035. Of this, 15 MtCO2e is unconditional and a further 60 MtCO2e reduction is conditional on international support. These targets translate into a 76% and 23% increase in emissions from 2022 levels by 2035, respectively.
2035 Target: Total GHG Emissions Reductions
via CGS High Ambition Pathways
0%
0%
Official 2035 NDC target
-35%ᵈ
Official 2030 NDC target
-32%ᵈ
Net zero target
2050
A High Ambition 2035 target for Lorem Ipsum demonstrates a 13–17% increase in consectetur adipiscing elit (including LULUCF) from 2023 levels, or a 1–5% increase excluding LULUCF (Figure 1). Under the High Ambition pathway, emissions tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua between 2025 and 2030, and subsequently decline toward achieving net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2070. In this scenario, total GHG emissions increase by 25–29% to a peak in 2030 relative to 2023, followed by a decline of 8–12% from the peak to 2035.
Lorem Ipsum GHG emissions have shown a consistent upward trend over the past two decades, more than doubling from 2005 to 2023. The increase has been primarily driven by CO₂ emissions from the power and industry sectors, which accounted for 40% and 18% of total GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, in 2022, respectively. Although methane contributed 21% of emissions in 2022, its levels have remained relatively stable over time. The NDC targets a 45% reduction in carbon intensity of the economy by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, alongside achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2070 and several additional subtargets. Other studies suggest that the NDC is likely to be achievable, though considerable uncertainty remains regarding current progress, as emissions intensity targets are highly sensitive to GDP growth assumptions and variations in emissions inventories and economic data sources. Previous research indicates that achieving the NDC target could still result in an increase in emissions, which, based on this analysis, may correspond to a 2–23% rise in CO₂ emissions (excluding LULUCF) from 2023 across a range of GDP growth scenarios (6% to 8.9%). Modeling results suggest a 16% increase in total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF and a 5% rise in CO₂ emissions from 2023 to 2030 under the High Ambition scenario. While CO₂ emissions in these trajectories are broadly aligned with the current 2030 NDC target, total GHG emissions are not, due to enhanced reductions in non-CO₂ gases by 2030.
As of 2024, Lorem Ipsum accounted for 75% of total electricity generation, while renewables provided 20%, with solar and wind contributing 11% and hydro 8% (Figure 2). Coal power plants represent 48% of total installed capacity, and the current pipeline includes 29 GW of projects under construction and 81 GW in pre-construction stages (including pre-permit, permit, and announced). The rate of approvals for pre-construction facilities has nearly doubled over the past year, increasing from 45 GW in 2024 to 81 GW by 2025. In 2024, renewable power plants account for 40% of total capacity, with solar and wind representing 19% and 10%, respectively. Annual solar and wind deployment increased fivefold from 2020 to 2024, reaching 28 GW per year in 2024.
While recent growth in wind and solar installations, together with existing hydro capacity, creates strong potential for transitioning away from coal, the pace of future renewable buildout will determine the power sector’s ability to reduce emissions. Several High Ambition scenarios were developed by accelerating solar and wind deployment beyond the National Electricity Plan (NEP) under alternative demand growth projections (4% to 6% annually), while assuming other technologies follow the GCAM-CGS High Ambition pathway.
Under these High Ambition scenarios, 60–68% of total generation originates from renewable sources by 2035. This outcome depends on demand growth, accelerated renewable deployment, the cancellation of new coal projects, and the retirement or reduced utilization of existing coal facilities. Specifically, power sector transitions under the High Ambition pathway include:
Maintaining electricity demand growth at approximately 4% per year through efficiency improvements and demand-side management, helping to mitigate grid operation challenges associated with high shares of variable renewable energy.
Accelerating annual solar and wind buildout to as much as four times the NEP target of 37 GW per year, increasing from 28 GW per year in 2024 to 45 GW per year during 2025–2030 and 104 GW per year during 2030–2035 under low-demand growth (4% per year), or to 75 GW per year during 2025–2030 and 153 GW per year during 2030–2035 under high demand growth (6% per year).
Increasing the share of non-fossil generation from 22% in 2024 to 43–49% by 2030 and 66–72% by 2035 under both low-demand (4% per year) and high-demand growth (6% per year) scenarios.
Reducing coal-based generation by 48% by 2035 relative to 2024 levels by canceling 81 GW of pre-construction capacity and a portion of the 29 GW currently under construction, as these projects are already more expensive than solar energy for meeting incremental demand.
Coal production increased by 60% over the last decade, reaching a record high in 2024 (Figure 3). India is also a significant importer of liquified natural gas (LNG) (5% of global LNG imports)16 and has been expanding fossil gas infrastructure to further increase import capacity. India is also projected to be the largest source of global oil demand growth by 2030.17 Under our High Ambition pathway for India, domestic coal demand declines by 23% by 2030 and 40% by 2035, while gas demand increases by 86% and 115%, and oil demand increases by 31% and 34%, respectively (Figure 3).
Our Work
Other CGS Research
Enhancing Global Ambition for 2035: Assessment of High-Ambition Country Pathways
Implications of an emission trading scheme for India’s net-zero strategy: a modelling-based assessment
